Tony Windsor announces he won't run again at the next election. Source: Supplied
A LOT has happened in Canberra today, so we've pulled together this quick guide to the unfolding leadership crisis. Here's everything you need to know to get up to speed.
1. There will be a leadership spill at 7pm AEST
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced there will be a leadership ballot at 7pm.
It comes after a petition for leadership vote was circulated among Labor MPs throughout the day.
Rudd backers did not expect the spill to be so early. "We expect it tomorrow," a Rudd supporter said this morning.
2. But will he win?
This morning, senior Rudd allies said they were confident the former PM had the numbers to seize the Labor leadership. But at this stage, it's impossible to predict where the numbers would fall.
Political commentators Graham Richardson and Peter Van Onselen believe it's Rudd's to lose. All we know is that several Labor MPs have moved into the former prime minister's column.
3. Why tonight?
It always had to be today or tomorrow.
Rudd is off on a trip to China tomorrow afternoon for a conference and it's the last week that Parliament is sitting before the election.
Mr Rudd's office confirmed to news.com.au this afternoon that he is still headed overseas.
4. But there's a constitutional catch
Even if Rudd takes over, the Governor-General Quentin Bryce may ask Rudd to test his parliamentary majority with a vote. And the support might not be there.
Independent MP Tony Windsor said this morning that if Rudd becomes leader he may support the "second place getter" at the last election: Tony Abbott.
Mr Windsor and fellow independent Rob Oakeshott gave Ms Gillard the numbers to form a minority government after the 2010 election.
"If the Labor Party can't get its mess together, there may be a scenario where ... Tony Abbott, may in fact receive my vote," he told reporters in Canberra today.
"If it came back to the house, to test the confidence, I wouldn't guarantee the challenger that it would naturally flow that my support would be that way."
It's not clear where the other independents stand on a Rudd government. Rob Oakeshott won't say if he would change his mind. Bob Katter, the akubra-wearing North Queensland MP, said this morning he would back a Rudd Labor Government and then said the opposite on Twitter.
Andrew Wilkie, another independent, said he had an "open mind".
5. Hey, what happens to the loser?
Both contenders have pledged to quit politics if they lose.
Continue the conversation on Twitter: @drpiotrowski @newscomauHQ
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